Tuesday 24 November 2015

斤经济较:MMSV业绩不如预期


MMSV的季报昨天刚出,

如果和去年的业绩比起来,

简直掉了一半,

再配合科技指数刚好遇到回调,

今天直接插下来14%

让我之前累计的盈利直接归零,

好在买的点低,

所以还不至于亏很多。



股市就是如此,

很多东西都无法预期,

尤其是小股和科技这种波动的行业,

正所谓上得山,

就不要怕老虎。

现在要做的是,

就是要决定,

到底应该卖掉、继续持有或是逢低加码。



首先看看它的业绩是不是有这么烂,

其实没有,


主要是因为去年的业绩太好啦,

去年同期的业绩翻倍,

这一季恢复原本的业绩,

所以比较起来,

好像掉很多。




我们继续看进去segment report

发现revenue减少最多的是来自国内的,

可能是受到GST的影响,

导致revenue大幅度减少,

如果是这样,

那么就是暂时的,

如果不是,

就是需求的问题,

那么就不适合久留。



mmsv最相近的case

就是Elsoft

两个都是做LED行业的,

Elsoft上个业绩也是不好,

来自大马的revenue大减,

股价大跌,

过后股价也是慢慢恢复,

这一季的业绩恢复水准,

所以股价也破新高。



如果mmsv的情况和elsoft一样,

下一季业绩恢复,

那么股价的走势应该会反弹,

但是如果是个股原因,

那么就头痛了。

所以我决定,

留着再等下一季季报,

如果业绩没有恢复,

就卖掉。



投资是一个综合性的策略,

当中包含了风险管理、个股选择、行业选择等等,

我们无法准确的预测每只股的走势,

我们能做的,

就是制定一个综合性的策略,

当业绩不如预期,

减少亏损,

当业绩符合预期,

增加盈利,

以便在长期的角度来看,

是获利的。

同时,

要珍惜每次亏损的经验,

为将来选股增加一点胜算。










7 comments:

  1. I chose to cut loss... I hate the directors and management threw the share at high price when they already knew the result wasn't good(directors disposed quite a number of shares before results announced)... learn the lesson... The result wasn't that bad, but I didn't want to invest in a company that management did profit taking because they're aware of result upfront. Very unfair. As a small shareholder for the company, I expect management to manage the company in a good shape but not earning his personal profit by taking the advantages that they knew the result before anyone. They're earning others' hard earn money in such way, it is very selfish and disgusting...

    p/s: I didn't take profit/cut loss on other counters which showed relatively poorer results. But, really great disappointed at the management of MMSV.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe they are giving u a hint..lol..

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  2. 我吃过Elsoft的亏,栽了一个跟斗。虽然听Ceo说那个季度会少赚,没想到却是少了将近70%,适逢乱世(股市跌)让我跑到气喘,哈哈。
    幸好从美女身上赚回,感恩。

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 哈哈,投资总是有这种情况发生

      Delete
  3. 不知夜大可否加我入你的Blog list呢?谢谢你。

    ReplyDelete