对于公司估值，（看公司股价贵还是便宜）
我最喜欢用的就是本益比(PE)。
本益比的计算方式非常简单，
本益比=每股股价/每股收益。
本益比将公司的价格和盈利联合在一起。
越能赚钱的公司就越有价值。
为什么我不用其他的方式呢？
1 Price/Book Value
Book Value是指公司的净资产。我觉得这个方式有几个缺点。第一 净资产不包括无形资产比如商誉而这些往往是最有价值的。第二有很高资产的公司并不代表会赚钱也不代表会用钱。
2 Price/Revenue
有些公司营业额很高，但是赚率很低，生意做很大，但是亏钱，所以无法作准。
3 Price/Cash Flow
现金很多的公司，只能代表公司现金流动方面很安全，不易倒闭。但是无法显示出公司的价值。
简单一句话，能赚钱的公司就是有价值的公司。
要如何运用本益比？
1 和同行业的其他公司作比较。
2 龙头公司的本益比通常会比其他二线股高出5。
3 稳定（消费品）和高成长（科技/通讯）的行业，本益比会较其他行业来得高。
4 一般上在牛市里，龙头股的本益比低于15和二线股的本益比低于10算便宜。
但是运用本益比的同时，有几个方面要注意的。
1 公司的盈利是不是一次性的。有时候公司卖资产会有一大笔盈利入手，从而拉低本益比。
2 Receivables的write off会高吗？有时候公司表面上是赚很多钱，但是最终收不回钱，这样是没有意义的。
3 一些炒股和一些即将有很大获利的公司本益比会异常高之外，稳定成长的公司的本益比基本上是稳定的。
这是我多年（只有两年= =）运用本益比的一些心得，曾经用它选过汽油股：Deleum, Daya,Pantech，建筑股：Ptaras，科技股：Vitrox, Willow都有不错的回筹。大家可以试试看。
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"Present value of future operating cash flow" is the most rational value calculation. The calculation will dependent on the company business nature. In addition, there is nothing important than the future company prospect but most of the financial calculation are taking the past into consideration. To avoid this, future earning prospect to be include in P/E. P/E is simply good, but accounting bath could inflated or deflated company earnings, and sometime price will be far from the truth.
ReplyDeleteFinancial reporting user are advice to be rational and capable to concern the company as a whole rather than using one or few indicator. When P/E stated undervalued, how about the debt structure? Future company earning driver? Are the operating managers holding company shares? Who are the top 30 shareholders and more.
Buying the shares like running the business, if you are the company owner, you would not using P/E ONLY.
I like your idea..but come to future operating, I will not use it..because predicting future to me is irrational..So I juz buy the company based on its current performance..
DeleteIt is irrational if you don't consider the future performance of the company. We don't predicting the future, but quantified the expectation on the company. This will make the P/E calculation being rational. You can see research report always use future or forecast P/E.
ReplyDeleteThere are many ways to valued company, but peoples does not use a particular method in rational way. If you have the following data:
Q4 EPS 4.54 sen
Q1 EPS 5 sen
Q2 EPS 5.5 sen
Q3 EPS 6.05 sen
Q4 EPS unknow
What is the Q4 EPS? Makes some calculation and you will get 6.655 sen. That is the forecast Q4 EPS to be included into your current P/E calculation (times to the historical average P/E level).
As simple as this, and your P/E become rational and predictable.
The Q4 EPS could be 4.54sen as this business is cyclic in nature. You have a good pint but forecasting future is not easy task.
DeletechyAu, thank you for your statement, you have pointed out the biggest mistake of using P/E ratio. A comparison method could not simply tell the price and value of the company. Please stick to "Present value of future operating cash flow".
Delete